The Stakem Report Loudoun Housing Stats Aug 2009

Real Estate Virginia – The Stakem Report
Aug. 2009
www.stakemreport.com
We're on the Web!

I did not have a July report and used that time to create
a web home for the Stakem Report. I will be updating
the information numerous times during the month
between the monthly newsletters. You will soon be able
to post your comments there as well. I look forward to
your input! Look for www.stakemreport.com.

June Improving?

June was a strange month. We are continuing to adjust
to the realities of our new market. As always there is
good news and bad.

First the “Good News?” Average sales prices in our
survey area only declined by 6% as compared to June
2008. This kind of good news gives me an ulcer! I
suppose compared to a near 20% decline, a 6%
decline is a great improvement. Personally I will not
consider anything other than positive numbers good
news.

The bad news is that Sales Volume is down 14% and
the Number of Transactions are down 9%. This is to be
expected as the banks are still holding many foreclosed
properties from the market which reduces the lower
priced sales. The sales volume is simply the reflection
of the decrease in transactions and falling average
prices.

The market still remains tight! Good properties will
receive offers within days (if priced correctly) and in
many cases receive multiple offers. If all things were
equal this should mean rising prices, however the new
appraisal rules continue to deflate these prices. Some
day all things will balance out and supply and demand
will once again control markets!

Finally! Positive Numbers!

July broke the long slump, if only by a little bit. The
average sale price in our survey INCREASED in July! I
wouldn't consider my house an ATM and plan on using
the equity, it only went up 1%, (but at this point I will
take anything and the trend is up.) I don't really believe
values actually went up. What I believe really
happened is a slight thaw in the higher priced market
combined with less underpriced property on the
market. These are both very positive signs!

We are definitely not out of the woods yet. There are a
number of things which are still problems. What are
banks going to do with their large inventory of
foreclosed homes? Will rising unemployment trigger
further foreclosures? What are interest rates going to
do? Will the extremely conservative appraisals
continue to dampen the market? These and other
trouble spots need serious attention but at least we are
moving in the right direction.

One major worry in this month's statistics is the huge
decline in the number of settled sales. There was a
27% decrease in transactions. This appears to be
because of the supply in the lower priced listings. The
demand still seems strong however we just don't have
the product to meet the demand.

Want to sell a $1M house?

This is not the time to sell a $1,000,000+ house! The
June statistics from MRIS show that we have a 27
month supply of homes above $1,000,000! The upper
price ranges remain virtually frozen. The price range
that is moving is $700,000 or below, with 3-5 months
supply on the market.

Loudoun Sales and trends